Inboxed: Great Decisions In The Making

The BTS on decisions that shaped the business world. šŸŒŽ

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FROM THE INBOX šŸ“Ø 

Inboxed: Great Decisions In The Making

Great decisions are paradoxical. You never know if the decision you make will be great until time passes and it plays out. To quote Steve Jobs in his famous 2005 Stanford commencement speech, ā€œYou can’t connect the dots looking forward. You have to connect them looking backwards.ā€

But do you ever wonder what was going through the minds of some of the most influential people on the planet as they made some universe-altering decisions? What was Mark Zuckerberg thinking of when he was considering acquiring Instagram? How did Steve Jobs think of the first design of the iPhone? What was Elon Musk thinking when he set a $55B salary for himself?

*Ok, Elon’s salary didn’t actually work like that—and I side with his $55B.

While we can’t get all the way inside the brains of the uber-successful, we can get take a peek. So let’s dive in!

Zuck’s best decision ever

"Given that we think our own valuation is fairly aggressive and that we’re vulnerable in mobile, I’m curious if we should consider going after one or two of them. What do you think?"

Zuckerverse.

Mark Zuckerberg’s musings about snapping up Instagram weren’t just banter at the water cooler—they were the prelude to one of the most game changing acquisitions in history. Just days after a laid back internal exchange, Facebook dropped the bombshell: it was acquiring Instagram for a cool $1 billion in cash and stock.

And the kicker? Instagram got to keep its independence and mojo, all while basking in Facebook's robust resources and infrastructure.

In hindsight, it seems like a no-brainer. But rewind to 2012, and Zuck was also eyeing Pinterest and Foursquare. Despite their heftier market presences, he saw Instagram's potential to become a serious thorn in Facebook’s side.

The sale meant Facebook could stay relevant with the younger crowd, eventually helping Instagram soar past a billion active monthly users and turning it what the pundits are calling an old fashioned cash volcano for the brand.

(Old) Source; Statista.

Source; Oberlo.

Year

Annual revenue

Annual growth

2017

$3.4 billion

2018

$8.6 billion

+152.94%

2019

$18.9 billion

+119.8%

2020

$28.4 billion

+50.3%

2021

$48.3 billion

+70.1%

2022

$51.1 billion

+5.8%

2023

$61.1 billion

+19.6%

2024

$70.9 billion

+16.0%

What about Instagram’s co-founders, Kevin Systrom and Mike Krieger though? Were they popping champagne? Not quite. Initially, they were on the hunt to raise their Series B and keep growing solo. There was even a moment where they looked for ways to nix the deal. Imagine if Twitter had swooped in instead—Zuckerberg’s kingdom might have had a very different shape.

*Cheers to Internal Tech Emails on Twitter for the above.

What I find fascinating is the; ā€œwill he go into destroy mode if I say noā€ from Systrom. It seems even in 2012, founders around Silicon Valley had a more than healthy respect, even fear, of the Zuck.

Today, the Instagram acquisition stands as one of the most brilliant strategic moves in the tech world. It’s a masterclass in quick, decisive action that continues to pay dividends. Facebook’s landscape is richer, and the social media ecosystem is forever altered. All because of a seemingly ā€˜easy’ decision made over a weekend.

The iPhone’s first draft

First drafts of anything are rough. It’s reassuring to know that the concept applies to some of the brightest minds on the planet too. Even one as sharp as Steve Jobs.

When the team at Apple were designing the first iPhone, Jobs wanted to take the original iPod design and turn it into a next generation mobile device. So when Samsung and Bang & Olufsen partnered up to create the ā€˜fashionphone’, the design team at Apple took note.

Samsung’s phone introduced a wheel design eerily similar to the iPod’s click wheel.

And Jobs was impressed by what he saw—even if in true Jobsian fashion—he made sure to call out Samsung’s misses as well.

The ā€˜fashionphone’.

Unfortunately, the hardware was; "a f*cking mess," as one Apple employee put it. The click wheel proved to be incredibly cumbersome when trying to act as an actual phone—think 1950s rotary dial phone but in your hand. As usual Steve was stubborn though. Very stubborn.

Steve kept pushing and pushing, and we were like, ā€˜Steve.’ He’s pushing the rock up a hill. Let’s put it this way: I think he knew, I could tell in his eyes that he knew; he just wanted it to work.

- Tony Wadell

The future?

Eventually though, Apple’s design team headed up by the legendary Jony Ive, were able to convince Steve to pivot to focus on a device with touchscreen capabilities. And on January 9, 2007, the world was introduced to an iPod, a phone, and internet mobile communicator all in one—the iPhone.

The world would never be the same again.

ā€œThoughts on OpenAIā€

OpenAI was born with a bold mission: to ensure artificial general intelligence benefits all of humanity. Founded by Sam Altman, Elon Musk, and a bunch of others, in December 2015, OpenAI started with a commitment to open research and collaboration, emphasising transparency and ethical AI development.

Although it started as a non-profit, OpenAI began to think that it was going to need to raise large sums of money if it wanted to be able to be on the bleeding edge in the space. As the company grew, it continued to push the boundaries of AI. So much so that it caught the attention of tech giants looking to leverage its technology. One such giant was Microsoft.

The partnership between OpenAI and Microsoft began to take shape when Kevin Scott, Microsoft's CTO, sent an email to CEO Satya Nadella with a simple subject line: "Thoughts on OpenAI."

One thing that stood out to me was the line ā€œthe scale of their ambition.ā€ It seemed that even in the very nascent days of AI, those working on the frontier of the technology knew it’s potential. Following on from this initial email Satya responded with the following.

In July 2019, Microsoft announced a $1 billion investment in OpenAI, marking the beginning of a deep and strategic partnership. This investment was not just a financial transaction but a commitment to collaborate on developing AGI while ensuring its safety and ethical deployment.

Ethical overlords.

Flash forward to June 2020, OpenAI released GPT-3, the third iteration of its Generative Pre-trained Transformer model.

And although it was a game-changer, it was the November 2022 release of ChatGPT in that truly put OpenAI on the map, and moved us one step closer to a world run by Skynet.

It’s actually a wild idea to think that OpenAI was a non-profit research startup was founded by Sam and Elon.

Supreme leader.

Today OpenAI is basically a subsidiary of Microsoft, the world’s most valuable company, while Elon has just raised $6B for his own for-profit foray into the space, xAI.

Learnings

  • Trust your gut on big decisions. Like Zuck's swift decision to acquire Instagram, sometimes you need to make bold moves based on your instincts, even if you don't have complete information or consensus.

  • Stay attuned to industry shifts. Zuckerberg also recognised the strategic threat Instagram could pose to Facebook's dominance. Stay alert to emerging players and trends in your space that could become opportunities or threats.

  • Iterate and refine your concepts. The iPhone's development shows the importance of being willing to pivot and refine your ideas. Don't get too attached to your first vision if it's not panning out. Listen to feedback.

  • Play the long game. Some of the most impactful strategic decisions, like the Instagram acquisition, pay off most in the long run. Consider the potential long-term value and implications of your choices.

  • Pursue moonshots, but have a roadmap. OpenAI shows the power of aiming high with a bold mission—but they pursued it iteratively, with practical projects like GPT-3 and ChatGPT along the way to, hopefully, AGI.

  • Recognise the potential of external partnerships. The Microsoft-OpenAI deal shows the value that can be unlocked by finding the right partner to accelerate your progress. Stay open to strategic partnerships that could help you achieve your mission faster.

Summary

Fortune favours the brave. We’re all one decision away from making a difference in the world. You’ll never know if the choices you make will pan out the way you want them to, but hey, that’s sll part of the fun.

Fun facts

  • Quick decisions. The decision to acquire Instagram was made over a weekend by Mark Zuckerberg, without consulting Facebook's board until just hours before the deal was finalised.

  • A Barney coloured code name. The development of the iPhone was so secretive that it was code-named "Project Purple." The team worked in a locked-down part of Apple’s campus.

  • And a photo I couldn’t help but to add. Instagram founders Mike Krieger and Kevin Systrom. I like these guys.

Soucre; Cody Pickens.

Extra reading

And that’s it! I hope you enjoyed knowing more about the BTS of some of the decisions that, even from afar, potentially changed our lives.

*Thanks to Caleb Lee who collaborated with me on today’s post.

BRAIN FOOD šŸ§  

I recently came across How to Make Viral Content, by Ship 30 for 30, and it's an absolute gem for anyone wanting to learn about the viral content ā€˜recipe’.

Liked the article, loved the video even more. Highly recommend giving them a look if you want to take your content to the next level.

TWEETS OF THE WEEK šŸ£ 

When you accidentally let the cat out of the bag.

This account is a good follow.

And shout out to our recent negative CAC piece.

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