Brand Breakdown: Nike’s Fall From Grace & Super Bowl Comeback

From world's most recognised logo to an incumbent on the ropes. 👟

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Bill Kerr, Elly Strang & Jean Teng
April 06, 2025

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Sam Harris just said the following on his podcast today that; “Our society is as politically shattered as it is, in part, because of how Joe [Rogan] has interacted with information.” I saddens me to say that I totally feel this.

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Brand Breakdown: Nike’s Fall From Grace & Super Bowl Comeback

When I was a youngster growing up in Australia there was nothing dorkier than a pair of Adidas. Reebok weren’t much better, even considering the short-lived Reebok Pump phase. If you wanted to be taken seriously on the playground, you wore Nike. Why? Because Michael Jordan wore Nike. And as the famous jingle goes, we all wanted to ‘Be Like Mike.’

The brand association with athletes in the 80s and 90s, and rapper and cultural figures from 2000 onwards, meant Nike nike had the ultimate brand halo effect. And it lasted for decades. But in recent times cracks have started to show. And the sheen of the swoosh has began to fade.

Source; Jeff Han.

But why though? Well, truth be told, as much as I am a brand guy, this goes above my pay grade. Luckily, to explore this recent Nike phenomenoff, I have enlisted the help of the professionals. Today, led by Jean Teng and Elly Strang from brand tracking startup scaleup Tracksuit, we’ll take a walk down memory lane of what got Nike to the dance, but why also their star now seems to be waning. And the best thing is, we’ll be diving into the data. Let’s dive in!

The inspirational story of ‘the swoosh’

Hey, Elly here, let’s jump straight into it. Few logos are as recognizable as the iconic Nike Swoosh. Designed by Portland State University student Carolyn Davidson in 1971 and inspired by the wing of the Greek goddess of victory, the symbol has taken on a life of its own, adorning the sportswear of top athletes over the years such as Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, Serena Williams, and Simon Biles.

This visual motif, alongside the ‘Just Do It’ slogan, has helped Nike execute on a masterclass in brand building that has built adoration with sneakerheads, athletes, and everyday people alike. But as immortalized in the 2023 film Air, it hasn’t always been an easy road to success for the brand. While the business was first established in 1964, Nike struggled to find its footing before signing Michael Jordan to promote their Air Jordans in 1984.

From Michael Jordan, Nike landed on the perfect marketing concoction: an influential sporting figure, an inspirational message that transcends sports and appeals to everyday consumers and a hint of its product.

The power of emotional storytelling

Part of what has made Nike such a successful brand over the years is its commitment to creative marketing that capitalizes on emotional storytelling. The tale of human triumph and struggle captured in its campaigns throughout the years is one that appeals to a broad audience and doesn’t exclude or give off any signs of sporting elitism.

Nike’s first ever Just Do It ad debuted in 1988 and starred San Francisco running legend, 80-year-old Walt Stack, running over the Golden Gate bridge (he ran more than 60,000 miles in his lifetime). This was followed up by a 1997 ‘Failure’ ad featuring Michael Jordan reflecting on his missed shots and losses on the basketball court, and the 2012 Find Your Greatness campaign, which featured everyday athletes pushing themselves to their limits.

However, one of its most famous campaigns in recent memory was 2018’s ‘Dream Crazy’ featuring former San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick – which was also the time the Black Lives Matter movement was at the center of public discourse.

The ad led with the slogan, “Believe in something. Even if it means sacrificing everything.” and debuted when Kaepernick was protesting racial injustice by taking a knee, which ended his NFL career. The campaign became one of the most talked about ads of all time. Alongside this constant drumbeat of brand marketing that builds an emotional connection with consumers, Nike has cemented its foothold on the sportswear industry through continuous product design and innovation.

The brand has a long-time legacy of working with a network of sneaker boutiques and skate shops run by tastemakers to build demand around limited edition products that were harder to get. This ensured Nike built cultural capital with the most enthused sneakerheads.

Nike slashes brand marketing, to its detriment

While Nike's legacy spans decades, its recent performance reveals how swiftly even the most iconic brands can experience a fall from grace. Under former CEO John Donahoe (only the second ever CEO to come from outside of Nike’s inner ranks) the brand reduced its presence in-store and leaned hard into digital marketing, honing its ecommerce strategy and the user experience of its website. It also entered the metaverse and bought an NFT studio.

Over the course of Donahoe’s tenure, Nike also decreased its investment in product innovation and instead relied on consumers’ love of more classic styles like its Dunks. It shied away from partnerships with culturally relevant collaborators, boutique sneaker stores and tastemakers and focused on relaying rational messaging across its channels.

Initially, it seemed to work—direct-to-consumer sales increased. But then the pain of deprioritising retail and consumer experiences became more evident. Nike’s competitors like Asics, New Balance and Hoka swooped in to capitalize on the shelf space left by Nike. These brands focused on product innovation and built community connections with consumers, which allowed them to gain market share and cultural capital in Nike’s absence.

The financial results followed swiftly. Nike’s revenue was down 10% year-on-year, and fell to $11.59 billion for the first fiscal quarter of 2025 (it was $12.94 billion the year prior). Stock prices have also been volatile—as was widely reported, on June 28, 2024, Nike’s stock value fell 21%. Tracksuit’s brand tracking data reflects a similar story. From April 2024 to December 2024 in the United States, our data found that consideration of the Nike brand decreased 8% (~13.2 million humans), preference for the brand decreased 5% (~9.7 million humans) and claimed usage decreased 8% (~13.2 million humans).

Donahoe was ousted from Nike’s leadership team on October 14 and replaced by Elliott Hill, a Nike veteran brought back from retirement who had previously held a number of senior positions. Some of Hill’s first moves were to fire up the brand marketing strategy once more and rekindle relationships with key retailers, sports leagues and other brands for collaborations.

Nike announced a partnership with Skims, the underwear label founded by Kim Kardashian, and released a line called NikeSKIMS in February. Hill also secured Nike’s long-term contract extension with the NFL, after the league was considering other businesses to make its on-field uniforms.

But perhaps the biggest brand moment of all for Nike was the brand airing its first NFL Super Bowl commercial in nearly three decades, starring sprinter Sha’Carri Richardson, gymnast Jordan Chiles and basketball star Caitlin Clark and narrated by Grammy-winning rapper Doechii.

Skims.

The 60-second powerful spot called ‘So Win’ put women athletes at the center of an enormous cultural event that revolves around men’s football teams, helping the brand revive its emotional connection with consumers and show it understands cultural relevance once more. The ad was one of the most talked about and became a fan favorite amongst viewers when it debuted, signalling Nike is back to being on track.

What went wrong in Nike’s marketing strategy?

Put simply, Nike’s story is a cautionary tale of the over-investment into performance marketing because it’s more easily quantifiable. Former Nike brand director Massimo Giunco went viral for a searing takedown in a LinkedIn post, an epic saga of value destruction, that declared: “Well, the brand team shifted from brand marketing to digital marketing and from brand enhancing to sales activation.”

Sales activation, or performance marketing, is defined as rational advertising aimed at people in the market ready to buy now that speaks to product pricing or features. This can be measured easily in short-term metrics like click-through-rates and cost-per-click. Brand building is marketing activity that builds an emotional connection with consumers who are part of a much bigger pool of people who aren’t ready to buy now, but will be in the future (aka Future Demand). Because the pay-off is longer, there is a tendency to favor marketing activity that’s performance driven.

Tracksuit’s data shows in the US sportswear category, the quality that drives the most buying intent (moving consumers from being aware of a brand to considering it and then preferring it over any other) is people believe the brand ‘is for people like me’. This means a business has to have enough cultural capital for people to relate to, identify with and see themselves in the brand. This wasn’t a priority for Donahoe, who was described as “more of a calculator than a creator” by Fast Company in an in-depth profile.

Source; Nike (ouch!).

Global marketing effectiveness expert James Hurman says Donahoe failed to grasp what made Nike great, while believing he could cut his way to growth through performance tactics.

A long time ago, the Father of Management Peter Drucker said that ‘because the purpose of business is to create a customer, the business enterprise has two – and only two – basic functions: marketing and innovation. Marketing and innovation produce results; all the rest are costs.

For decades, Nike was one of the few companies that not only understood that Drucker was right, but executed relentlessly and consistently on those two basic functions. Then somehow they blinked, installing leadership that turned away from the wisdom and instead saw marketing and innovation as costs to be reduced.

— James Hurman

He says there is an epidemic of business leaders who fail to grasp this. “Your competitors not getting it is your opportunity. Build Future Demand through great innovation and great brand marketing, and you'll leave them in your dust.”

💡 Bonus: Check out more of Tracksuit’s brand breakdowns on the website here.

So, can they recover?

Nike isn’t the first high-profile brand to stumble. Just take LEGO, which was in serious financial trouble in the early 2000s and nearing bankruptcy due to too many unprofitable product lines. The company cut non-core products and refocused on what made LEGO unique: its building blocks.

It also tapped into fan engagement, collaborations with customers and partnerships, such as Harry Potter and Star Wars lego lines. Now, in 2025, its brand strength has allowed it to expand beyond the toy aisle into theme parks, games and movies.

Tracksuit’s data shows that in the toys and puzzles category, LEGO has the highest converting marketing funnel. 44% of people who have considered purchasing LEGO choose it as their preferred toy brand. This is well above the competitor average of 20%. Alongside stellar brand metrics, the business reported record top and bottom line results in 2024, with revenue growing 13% to 74.3 billion kroner ($10.8 billion USD).

One could argue that Hill, the new CEO, is invoking a similar strategy of heading back to the brand basics of what makes Nike great. Given its rich history it can call upon with memorable sporting figures, beloved and innovative new product lines and inspirational messaging, honing in on what makes the brand unique in the eyes of consumers is the right approach.

Playbook / how you can apply this

  • Don’t view marketing innovation as a cost center: The best executives see these areas of business as levers for growth.

  • Learn what makes a brand tick: New executives coming into a business should look at what makes a brand great in its existing DNA instead of immediately trying to enact change.

  • Brand loyalty can take decades to build, and just years to erode: Use consumer insights to give you a steer of how you’re capturing the hearts (and wallets) of consumers.

*Note: Click this link below and you can go ahead and download some global brand benchmarks for yourself.

  • You don’t have to have a Super Bowl level budget to be effective: Invest in both brand and performance marketing to get both the messaging and the distribution right.

  • Educate other stakeholders on why brand is important: tl;dr: easier customer acquisition, less price sensitivity and a competitive moat to protect you from other businesses cannibalizing your category.

  • Don’t rest on your laurels: If a brand as iconic as Nike can take a tumble, so can yours. Whether you’re a start-up or an established business, avoid complacency.

  • Read up on the concept of Future Demand: It teaches you how to continue to build your pipeline of future customers.

The future

Following the Super Bowl ad in February, there are already positive signs emerging that Nike’s back-to-basics strategy is resonating with consumers. From January to March, consideration has risen 4% in the United States. That’s an extra ~11.3 million humans who are considering buying the brand. Preference has risen 2%, too (~6.2 million humans).

We’ll be keeping a close eye on Nike’s data and marketing move to see how this progresses over the remainder of 2025 to see whether this is another comeback for the ages. Watch this space!

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